As I stated in a previous post, I have been trading according to Trade Money. There have been ups and downs trading this strategy. Up until last night I was slowly making gains and my account balance was slowly but steadily growing. Last night, I was trading a fundamental announcement on the GBP/USD. The price shot up around 50 pips in less than a minute. Following the strategy in “Explosive Profits” from the afore mentioned web site, I waited for the price to pull back. Then I placed an entry order above the price with a stop of 20 pips. It was not very long and my order was triggered, and then stopped out for a 20 pip loss. I was trading 7 micro lots so that was a 14 dollar loss. I tried another entry, again stopped out. Before it was over with, I was down over 100 dollars. I am aware that a hundred dollars is not a whole lot of money. It is however a lot when compared to the total amount of money in my account. My account total was $1467, the loss of last night brought me to $1367. This is about a 7% total loss of my account. That is a lot for three hours of trading. These losses came as a result of a break of my trading rules. One of my rules is quit trading after two consecutive losses, which was not followed. As a result of last night I have come to realize that trading this way is unsustainable, if it continues I will not last much over a year if that. These losses really caused me to rethink my position on trading Forex. The way that I see it I have four choices, and they are as follows.
1. Quit trading Forex altogether.
2. Strictly demo trade for a while.
3. Continue trading as I have been.
4. Lower my lots by quite a bit till I get everything under control.
Option #1 is totally out of the question. I am in this for the long haul, I will trade until I am forced to quit. Hopefully I will eventually be able to make a living off of this.
Option #2 Demo trading is good for learning the trading software and good for trying out new strategies, but I have come to realize it is not like real trading. I demo traded until I was profitable for a full month, then when I went to a real money account I was unprofitable. The main reason for this is that demo trading does not involve emotion. When there is real money on the line you are tempted to move your stop to breakeven or to a small profit. This sounds like a good idea. What happens though, is your gains are a lot smaller than your losses. This means that you have to have a higher percentage of successful trades. For a few weeks I have had a 75%+ success rate on my trades. But still, my losses far outweigh my gains. Please note these are my opinions on the subject, I do suggest that you demo trade until profitable. Just be aware that real trading is quite a bit different.
Option 3 is totally out. As I have stated, this type of trading is not sustainable. If I lasted a year it would not be much longer. Not to mention the fact that I cannot take many more losses of that magnitude.
Option 4 is the only real option for me. So, this is what I plan to do. I will trade a single micro lot and keep trading the same strategy. Most of my losing trades have been from not following the rules. Also, a lot of my trades have been profitable. The problem is very few have made it to my full profit level, due to me being overly cautious and moving my stop too early. I plan on using the compounded gains method as taught in Forex Surfing from Trade Money. When I get to the point where I am consistently profitable for a week I will raise the amount of lots by one. On the weeks that I am not profitable I will lower the lot by one. This will be the method I will follow until I am again trading 1% of my account, consistently profitable. When I make it to this point I will trade 1% for a month profitably, before I consider moving it to the 2% mark. This last rise will be a lot at a time as well.
I am sorry that I have not been posting very much, between work, trading forex, learning forex, and other projects, I have been pushed to the limits. Now, things have slowed down a bit, so hopefully I will be able to post at least a few times a week. I hope to eventually post every day.
Happy Trading
rgrace